2012 Predictions from the Center Mid-Field (CMF)

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From CMF Associates in Philadelphia:

November 3, 2011

2012 Predictions from the Center Mid-Field (CMF)

Economic Predictions

  • U.S. unemployment ↓from 9.0% to 8.7%
  • U.S. GDP ↑ from 1.4% to 2.4%
  • Fed funds rate will remain unchanged at 0.1%
  • Ten-Year Treasury Note rate will ↑from 3.0% to 3.8%
  • Savings Rate ↓ from 5.2% to 4.5%
  • Budget deficit ↓from $1,299B to $999B
  • Oil prices ↓ from $101.23 to $85 a barrel
  • USD/EUR exchange rate ↓ $1.41 to $1.30
  • USD/GBP exchange rate ↓ $1.61 to $1.64
  • Renminbi/USD ↑ 6.50 RMB to 7.00 RMB
  • Europe has zero economic growth

Socio-Political Predictions

  • Iraq provides pleasant surprises, Afghanistan unpleasant ones
  • Shortage of skilled workers in many industries impacts public debate on worker training
  • Tight election race between Romney and Obama is decided by PA, OH and MI (Rust Belt Rising)
  • In 2012, Democratic ticket is adjusted – Clinton is VP and Biden moves to Secretary of State
  • Syria’s Assad regime fails

Industry Predictions

  • PE M&A deal volume up 15%
  • Industrial production up 3.3%
  • US retail comp sales up 3.0%
  • Construction up 3.1%
  • US natural gas production, which increased 6.7% in 2011, will continue to grow in 2012,  but slower –  a 2.8% increase over 2011
  • Banks loosen underwriting standards and begin growing the loan book meaningfully

Download 2012 Predictions PDF

http://www.cmfassociates.com/Blog.aspx?id=1850&blogid=132

 

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