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		<title>Health Costs, Gov&#8217;t Regulations Curb Small Business Hiring</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/health-costs-govt-regulations-curb-small-business-hiring/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Feb 2012 16:30:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[From Gallup.com, results from Wells Fargo and Gallup survey of 600 small business owners. ******** Wednesday, February 15, 2012 Updated 04:00 AM ET Economy February 15, 2012 Health Costs, Gov&#8217;t Regulations Curb Small Business Hiring Nearly half of small-business owners name these issues by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist PRINCETON, NJ &#8212; U.S. small-business owners who aren&#8217;t hiring ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From Gallup.com, results from Wells Fargo and Gallup survey of 600 small business owners.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">********</p>
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<div>Wednesday, February 15, 2012 Updated 04:00 AM ET</div>
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<div>February 15, 2012</div>
<h1>Health Costs, Gov&#8217;t Regulations Curb Small Business Hiring</h1>
<h2>Nearly half of small-business owners name these issues</h2>
<div>by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist</div>
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<p>PRINCETON, NJ &#8212; U.S. <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/152516/Small-Business-Hiring-Intentions-Best-January-2008.aspx" target="_blank">small-business owners</a> who aren&#8217;t hiring &#8212; 85% of those surveyed &#8212; are most likely to say the reasons they are not doing so include not needing additional employees; worries about weak business conditions, including revenues; cash flow; and the overall U.S. economy. Additionally, nearly half of small-business owners point to potential healthcare costs (48%) and government regulations (46%) as reasons. One in four are not hiring because they worry they may not be in business in 12 months.</p>
<p><img src="http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/su_q7do-a0uwitgod8hllq.gif" border="0" alt="Why are you NOT looking for new employees? Among small-business owners who say they are not currently looking for new employees, January 2012 " hspace="0" vspace="0" width="504" height="311" /></p>
<p>Companies typically hold back on hiring when the economy is weak and when their operating environment is not providing sufficient revenues or cash flows. This appears to be the case right now, as the economy has been weak for more than four years. Less typical is for many owners to point to such things as potential healthcare costs and government regulations.</p>
<p>Wells Fargo and Gallup survey 600 small-business owners quarterly to assess conditions within their companies as well as their outlook. Small-business owners&#8217; hiring intentions are currently <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/152516/Small-Business-Hiring-Intentions-Best-January-2008.aspx" target="_blank">the best they have been since January 2008</a>, though the percentage who plan to hire new employees still represents a minority of small-business owners.</p>
<p><strong>Better Business Conditions Encourage Hiring</strong></p>
<p>Small-business owners who are currently hiring are most likely to say they are doing so because their business operations expanded, consumer or business demand increased, sales and revenues justify adding more employees, and they need to replace an employee who left. Thirteen percent of owners point to their ability to get new capital, while 7% indicate they were influenced by government tax incentives.</p>
<p><img src="http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/o3au8h3oousnaj0brtobba.gif" border="0" alt="Why are you looking for new employees? Among small-business owners who say they are currently looking for new employees, January 2012" hspace="0" vspace="0" width="484" height="290" /></p>
<p><strong>Hiring Mostly the Old-Fashioned Way</strong></p>
<p>Small-business owners search for new employees most commonly through the old-fashioned ways of word-of-mouth (65% say it is a &#8220;major way&#8221; they find employees) and employee referrals (48%). One in five owners say the Internet is a major way &#8212; up in recent years &#8212; while 9% say the same about newspaper ads, down in recent years.</p>
<p><img src="http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/kdyx2i5izuoputuatdob7q.gif" border="0" alt="When you look for new employees, is each of the following a major way you find new employees, a minor way, or not a way? January 2012 results" hspace="0" vspace="0" width="484" height="248" /></p>
<p><strong>Hiring Fewer Employees Than Needed</strong></p>
<p>One in three small-business owners who have hired employees in the last year say they have hired fewer employees than they need, while 65% have hired as many as they need. Five percent of owners report hiring more employees than they need. While this leaves a gap between small-business owners&#8217; perceived needs and their hiring during the last year, it is an improvement from November 2010, when 42% of owners said they had hired fewer employees than they needed.</p>
<p><img src="http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/g_5db-pahuipidby7l_kdq.gif" border="0" alt="Have you hired as many employees as you need, more than you need immediately, or fewer than you need? Based on those who have hired new employees in the past 12 months, January 2012" hspace="0" vspace="0" width="484" height="221" /></p>
<p>When small-business owners can&#8217;t hire the new employees they need, they often turn to others for unpaid help. Most often, they seek the help of a spouse (21%) or help from their friends (16%) or children (15%). One in 10 get help from a relative who is not a spouse or a child, while 1 in 20 use an unpaid intern. Three in 10 say they don&#8217;t turn to anyone.</p>
<p><img src="http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/uvzrknnieeaiwz-zem_clg.gif" border="0" alt="Thinking about times when you can't afford to hire new employees, who do you turn to MOST for unpaid help? January 2012 results" hspace="0" vspace="0" width="444" height="269" /></p>
<p><strong>Implications</strong></p>
<p>The debate over why U.S. small-business owners aren&#8217;t hiring more aggressively tends to hinge on whether overall business conditions, including a lack of growth and revenue, are the primary culprit as opposed to the potential cost of healthcare and government regulations. Apparently, both sides of the debate are correct.</p>
<p>Small-business owners hire when they need to respond to increased business activity and have the opportunity to grow. Although some small businesses in selected industries and markets have been growing, the weak economy of the past four years has limited overall small-business growth. Further, many small businesses continue to feel financially vulnerable, with 66% saying they are worried about the current status of the U.S. economy and nearly one in four telling Gallup they fear they may not be in business 12 months from now.</p>
<p>Given this difficult operating environment, it is not surprising that many small-business owners also worry about potential new healthcare costs and government regulations. While small businesses are always finding ways to deal with their changing operating environment, including government regulations and healthcare, these added challenges can be seen as exacerbating an already uncertain and difficult situation. In turn, they become additional reasons to hold back on hiring.</p>
<p>Right now, economic confidence is approaching <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/152624/Economic-Confidence-Best-Year.aspx" target="_blank">its highest levels in the last four years</a>. U.S. small-business owners are also about as optimistic about their business and their future hiring as they&#8217;ve been at any point during that time. Congress can&#8217;t do much in the immediate term to significantly improve small-business revenues and growth. However, lawmakers could place a moratorium on new regulations for some period of time. In turn, this might provide the extra push needed to get small-business owners to decide to hire the employees they actually need and get the economy growing at a pace the average American can recognize as an economic recovery.</p>
<p><strong>About the Wells-Fargo Small Business Index</strong></p>
<p>Since August 2003, the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index has surveyed small-business owners on current and future perceptions of their business financial situation. Visit <a href="http://www.wellsfargobusinessinsights.com/small-business-index" target="_blank">the Wells Fargo Business Insight Resource Center</a> to access the full survey report and listen to Wells Fargo Senior Economist, Dr. Scott Anderson, in his quarterly Small Business Index podcast.</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/152654/Health-Costs-Gov-Regulations-Curb-Small-Business-Hiring.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.gallup.com/poll/152654/Health-Costs-Gov-Regulations-Curb-Small-Business-Hiring.aspx</a></p>
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		<title>Texas M&amp;A Gets a Boost from Oil &amp; Gas</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/texas-ma-gets-a-boost-from-oil-gas/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/texas-ma-gets-a-boost-from-oil-gas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 16:18:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Managing Partner Layne Kasper interviewed in Fort Worth Business Press. ************ Texas M&#38;A gets a boost from oil &#38; gas Energy deals dominated merger and acquisition activity in 2011 By Rob Robertson rrobertson@bizpress.net Reporter The energy industry dominated a strong 2011 for mergers and acquisitions in Texas, but industry insiders are unwilling to predict a repeat ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Managing Partner <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/laynekasper" target="_blank">Layne Kasper</a> interviewed in <a href="http://www.fwbusinesspress.com/" target="_blank">Fort Worth Business Press</a>.</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">************</p>
<h2><a href="http://www.fwbusinesspress.com/news/banking_and_finance/Texas-MA-gets-a-boost-from-oil--gas.html" target="_blank">Texas M&amp;A gets a boost from oil &amp; gas</a></h2>
<h3>Energy deals dominated merger and acquisition activity in 2011</h3>
<p><em>By <a href="http://www.thefwbp.com/news/banking_and_finance" target="_blank">Rob Robertson</a> <a href="mailto:rrobertson@bizpress.net" >rrobertson@bizpress.net</a><br />
Reporter</em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p>The energy industry dominated a strong 2011 for mergers and acquisitions in Texas, but industry insiders are unwilling to predict a repeat in 2012.<em> </em></p>
<p>Led by the energy sector, mergers and acquisitions in Texas finished with 335 deals worth $140.3 billion in 2011 – nearly a 50 percent increase by value compared to 2010, according to Mergermarket, an independent M&amp;A intelligence service.</p>
<p>The fourth quarter was particularly impressive. There were 74 deals in the final three months of 2011 totaling $54.4 billion – a 176 percent increase from the same period last year ($19.7 billion), and a 67 percent increase from the third quarter of 2011 ($32.6 billion). Fourth quarter 2011 was also the biggest quarter by value since the fourth quarter of 2009 ($89.4 billion).</p>
<p>The energy sector is driving performance in Texas, both in the volume of deals and in the dollar value. Energy alone accounted for $112.7 billion worth of deals – a massive 80 percent of total values for the state.</p>
<p>Kinder Morgan’s $37 billion purchase of El Paso Corporation and BHP Billiton Limited’s $15 billion purchase of Petrohawk Energy led all transactions in the state.</p>
<p><strong>From Cisco to Singapore</strong><br />
The most significant deals to the Dallas-Fort Worth were Energy Transfer Equity’s $9 billion purchase of Southern Union Company and FTS International (formerly FracTech)’s 70 percent majority sale to a Singapore investment group.</p>
<p>FracTech, which began as a family-operated oilfield services company in Cisco before moving its executive headquarters to Fort Worth, was raising money for an initial public offering when the company attracted the attention of the Singapore sovereign wealth fund – essentially the private equity fund of the nation of Singapore – which decided to buy into the company.</p>
<p>Chad Watt, Mergermarket’s Texas correspondent, said FTS International’s journey was particularly compelling.</p>
<p>“Suddenly this company out of Cisco, Texas – a community that makes Weatherford look like a metropolis – has now just gone international,” he said. “It’s a great story.”</p>
<p>Watt said while the mega-deals may have dominated the headlines, a number of middle market, private company deals have been going on below that that have helped sustain the M&amp;A market here.</p>
<p>Deals involving companies on the low end of the spectrum ($5 million to $500 million) in Texas increased by 129 over 2010. The total value of the deals was lower, but Watt said that’s more a reflection of the new economic reality than anything else.</p>
<p>“The fact that you still have that many deals going on shows that the deal ecosystem in Texas, including North Texas, didn’t die in 2008 when things went south,” he said. “Transaction-to-transaction they may not be getting as much money as their counterparts did in 2007, but it is a sign that those professional services groups survived the downturn and are still quite capable of doing meaningful work here.”</p>
<p><strong>Tough going outside of energy</strong><br />
Still, putting together smaller deals outside of energy has been significantly more challenging over the past 18-24 months, according to Layne Kasper, managing partner of Kasper &amp; Associates in Fort Worth, a mergers and acquisitions firm that serves middle-market companies.</p>
<p>“There are just many more buyers than there are sellers, he said. “A lot of the business owners we see … are waiting for their own performance to improve before they go on the market. Because of that, there aren’t a lot of good companies for sale these days.”</p>
<p>Kasper says it’s an effect of the national recession on many businesses, which saw performance declines in the past three years and subsequently lower valuations. The result is that many sellers are choosing to hold on longer and ride out the downturn in hopes of improving their selling price in the future.</p>
<p>“I think after these companies have gotten a good year or two [of higher performance] under their belt, then they’ll be interested in entering the marketplace,” he said.</p>
<p>It’s even been tough at the top, as the biggest deal in Texas outside of energy was the one deal that did not close in 2011: AT&amp;T’s attempted $39 billion purchase of T-Mobile from Deutsche Telekom. That deal ended up falling through in December in the face of regulatory pressure, Watt said.</p>
<p><strong>Looking ahead – sort of</strong><br />
Watt said it’s impossible to predict what 2012 may hold, but the general consensus seems to be that deals volume could pick up through spring but slow down in the summer as the election season ramps up.</p>
<p>“The smart players are the one that are going to be executing their strategy come what may, rather than just waiting on some outside factor to tell them what to do,” he said. “The good investment bankers and lawyers are out there with their clients saying now is the time to hit it.”</p>
<p>This is especially true in oilfield services, where natural gas prices have gotten so cheap, Watt said.</p>
<p>“All the big companies are pulling back their drilling, therefore the service providers down the line are probably going to see a slowdown in their volume of work up ahead,” he said. “If you were going to do something strategic on the sell side, then you probably should have done it already.”</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.kasperassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/WestTexasoilfieldCNN.jpg" ><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-649" title="WestTexasoilfieldCNN" src="http://www.kasperassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/WestTexasoilfieldCNN-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p>Oil pumps like the one in Stanton, Texas are a common sight all across the horizon in far West Texas. Energy sector deals dominated the M&amp;A activity in Texas in 2011.</p>
<p><em>Tracy Sabo/CNN</em></p>
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<p><a href="http://www.kasperassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/MnA-chart.jpg" ><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-650" title="MnA chart" src="http://www.kasperassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/MnA-chart-276x300.jpg" alt="" width="276" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Texas M&amp;A deals by value, 2011</p>
<p><em>Mergermarket</em></p>
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<p><a href="http://www.timesleader.com/FwBp/news/banking_and_finance/Texas-MA-gets-a-boost-from-oil--gas.html" target="_blank">http://www.timesleader.com/FwBp/news/banking_and_finance/Texas-MA-gets-a-boost-from-oil&#8211;gas.html</a></p>
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		<title>Middle Market M&amp;A Outlook</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/middle-market-ma-outlook/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/middle-market-ma-outlook/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 22:35:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Business Sale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business Valuation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Buyer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[From the Axial Market blog: https://www.axialmarket.com/blog/2012/02/middle-market-m-outlook-peter-sokoloff-co/ Peter Sokoloff focuses on different industries than we do at K&#38;A, however, his comments on the high level of buyer interest right now mirror what we&#8217;re seeing in manufacturing, distribution and business services. ************************* Middle Market M&#38;A Outlook: Peter Sokoloff &#38; Co. Posted Feb. 1, 2012 Today we continue ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><strong>From the <a href="https://www.axialmarket.com/" target="_blank">Axial Market</a> blog:</strong> <a href="https://www.axialmarket.com/blog/2012/02/middle-market-m-outlook-peter-sokoloff-co/" target="_blank">https://www.axialmarket.com/blog/2012/02/middle-market-m-outlook-peter-sokoloff-co/</a></em></p>
<p><em>Peter Sokoloff focuses on different industries than we do at K&amp;A, however, his comments on the high level of buyer interest right now mirror what we&#8217;re seeing in manufacturing, distribution and business services.</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em>*************************<br />
</em></p>
<h1>Middle Market M&amp;A Outlook: Peter Sokoloff &amp; Co.</h1>
<address>Posted Feb. 1, 2012</address>
<p>Today we continue the conversation we started on Tuesday, asking investment bankers and private equity groups to speculate about the coming year.</p>
<p>Part One of the series was an interview with <a href="https://www.axialmarket.com/blog/2012/01/middle-market-m-outlook-prairie-capital/" target="_blank">Darren Snyder and Tony Danielak from Prairie Capital</a>, a middle market private equity group in Chicago. In the second installment in this series, we sat down with Peter Sokoloff, Senior Managing Director at Peter Sokoloff &amp; Co, a middle market investment bank in San Francisco focused on Telecom and Homeland Security, to get his thoughts on the coming year.</p>
<p><strong>Cody: What are your thoughts right now on the general economy and how it will impact mid-sized private businesses? </strong></p>
<p><em>Peter: Very positive. Most of the traditional leading and lagging indicators are up, pointing to a very good year. Unemployment claims are down, employment is up, inventories are growing, corporate earnings are improving and they’ve been steadily improving since mid-2010. They just kept gradually getting better in 2011 and we expect the same in 2012.</em></p>
<p><strong>What is your outlook for the private market and the deal business in general? </strong></p>
<p><em>The outlook is excellent. I have 9 sell side clients in-house and I just closed one. I’ve been in banking for a long time and have found that different strategies work in different economies. When the economy is teetering, we move to the buyside because it’s hard to do sell side representation. In 2009, for example, we had 10 buyside clients and one sell side client. Now we’re almost all sell side and they’re all finding significant buyer interest. The only buyside clients are holdovers from a few years ago. Today we’re seeing great interest in our sellers and real commitment by buyers to get deals done. By contrast, in 2009 most buyers had weak or non-existent M&amp;A mandates. </em></p>
<p><strong>How will the credit markets affect business this year? Do you think it will impact firms abilities to close?</strong></p>
<p><em>We really only work with two types of buyers: big corporate buyers and very good PE groups. All of the well-heeled buyers could get capital even in the depths of the recession. The biggest impact has actually been for our clients. It’s much easier for them to get credit to grow their businesses which is making them more attractive as they expand. </em></p>
<p><em>An example is one of our clients, a systems integrator who works internationally. A year or two ago they were trying to get capital to cover the 30-60 day gap between when they do the work for their clients and when they get paid, but they found it difficult to find the loans. Now the bank is helping significantly, even covering international accounts receivables which they wouldn’t touch before. The banks aren’t necessarily changing all of the equations they use to determine which loans to give, but they are getting more creative in the types of capital they’re willing to extend to companies. </em></p>
<p><strong>Are you expecting to do different types of deals in this economy or change the way your firm operates? </strong></p>
<p><em>Other than the shift from mostly buyside to mostly sell side, we’re really sticking close to our core. We’re 100% M&amp;A. We’ve done other things in the past, but our business is rather unique compared to other Investment Banks. Some firms are regional, they’ll be in San Francisco or Los Angeles or New York and they look for deals near them. We’re very industry specific, not regional. We do deals all around the world and know everyone in our industry. We really only work in two industries: telecom services/software companies and homeland security companies. We email nearly every CEO in the two industries our newsletter each week and mail them monthly. They all know exactly who we are and we usually hear about deals well before anyone else. </em></p>
<p><strong>Are you anticipating any other changes happening in 2012?</strong></p>
<p><em>One change that started last year that I think is only going to get stronger this year is the trend for very good private equity groups to start acting a lot more like venture capitalists used to act. I’ve been an investment banker since the early 1980s and until last year I used to avoid private equity groups as a general rule whenever possible because they would sign hundreds of NDAs and waste a lot of our time. Sokoloff is a small group, we don’t have a lot of time to waste, so I would much rather work with industry players who will sign 25 NDAs and buy two companies a year than work with PE groups who will sign 500 NDAs and buy one company. </em></p>
<p><em>In 2011 we noted a very interesting change in the top tier of private equity players. I’m really seeing a lot more of the A level type [see side bar] of private equity groups showing up. We’re actually starting to sell companies to private equity more often and they’re starting to act like industry players. Sometimes a PE deal will even end up with a better multiple than we’re getting from industry players. The multiples are closer to public ranges and while the A level groups require significantly more due diligence, the deals always end up better in the end. I admire the A level PEs. Instead of selling outright to a larger company who would likely slow down growth, these type of PE investments keep the entrepreneur engaged, creating jobs and driving our economy in the best American sense. </em></p>
<p><em>As an example, last year we had a $25M client that was growing very well and the owner/entrepreneurs decided they wanted to exit the company through a 100% sale. After talking with a few very good PE groups who wanted to keep them engaged as managers, they changed their minds, decided to stay on-board and keep growing the company. Everyone wins – the current owners take some money off the table and are positioned to take a second bite at the apple, the buyers have a strong ROI in the pipeline, and more people get hired, more GDP is created, etc.</em></p>
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		<title>Success Maxims (Part 13)</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/success-maxims-part-13/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/success-maxims-part-13/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2012 18:57:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dr. Kenneth Cooper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fitness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Success Maxims]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kasperassociates.com/?p=640</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kasper &#38; Associates maintains faith in the American spirit and we believe in the power of positive thinking.  To that end, we’ve established a monthly posting to our blog – Success Maxims — a collection of our favorite motivational quotes, essays and leadership advice.  (For a complete collection, e-mail your mailing address to contact@kasperassociates.com.) SUCCESS MAXIMS ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kasper &amp; Associates maintains faith in the American spirit and we  believe in the power of positive thinking.  To that end, we’ve  established a monthly posting to our blog – <strong>Success Maxims</strong> — a collection of our favorite motivational quotes, essays and leadership advice.  (<em>For a complete collection, e-mail your mailing address to contact@kasperassociates.com.)</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>SUCCESS MAXIMS</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">–Part 13–</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Fitness Facts</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em>(<a href="http://www.cooperaerobics.com/About-Cooper/Dr--Kenneth-Cooper.aspx" target="_blank">Dr. Kenneth Cooper</a>; Physician, Author)</em></p>
<p>1. Fitness is a journey, not a destination.  It must be continued for the rest of your life.</p>
<p>2. You can’t store fitness.  It’s what you did yesterday that counts, not what you did six months ago.</p>
<p>3. The older you are, the longer it takes to get into shape, and the faster you lose it.</p>
<p>4. Remember to warm up before you exercise.  But even more important is to cool down after exercise for at least five minutes.  Sixty-five percent of severe heart attacks occur during recovery, not during exercise.</p>
<p>5. There is nothing known to man that totally protects against coronary artery disease, whether it is medicine, surgery or marathon running.</p>
<p>6. If you are running more than 15 miles a week, you are running for something more than cardiovascular fitness.</p>
<p>7. A good exercise program is the foundation of any good wellness program, but it must be in conjunction with proper weight, proper nutrition and proper supplementation.  That’s called 21st century medicine.</p>
<p>8. A person who is physically fit is less likely to be depressed or a hypochondriac.  He or she has a better self-image, a more positive attitude toward life and fewer somatic (bodily) complaints.</p>
<p>9. I consider the top five aerobics exercises to be cross-country skiing, swimming, jogging or running, cycling and walking.  Among those, just about anyone, regardless of age or gender, can exercise safely and effectively.</p>
<p>10. The first step of any exercise program is to avoid inactivity.  Collectively, 30 minutes of activity most days of the week has been shown to have great health and longevity benefits.</p>
<p>11. Weightlifting and muscle-building exercises must be done in conjunction with, not in place of, a primary aerobic fitness program.</p>
<p><strong><br />
</strong></p>
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		<title>Duped by Social Media: 6 Questions You Should Ask when Using LinkedIn</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/duped-by-social-media-6-questions-you-should-ask-when-using-linkedin/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/duped-by-social-media-6-questions-you-should-ask-when-using-linkedin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jan 2012 17:43:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LinkedIn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Networking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Media]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kasperassociates.com/?p=637</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Common sense posted by Jaime Romero on Jan. 11, 2012 at   https://www.axialmarket.com/blog/2012/01/duped-by-social-media/ &#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;- Duped by Social Media: 6 Questions You Should Ask when Using LinkedIn Last week, the SEC accused Anthony Fields’ of marketing fraudulent securities on LinkedIn. This is perhaps the most serious example yet of the conflict between social media and SEC / FINRA ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Common sense posted by Jaime Romero on Jan. 11, 2012 at   <a href="https://www.axialmarket.com/blog/2012/01/duped-by-social-media/" target="_blank">https://www.axialmarket.com/blog/2012/01/duped-by-social-media/</a></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<h2>Duped by Social Media: 6 Questions You Should Ask when Using LinkedIn</h2>
<p>Last week, the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/04/us-sec-socialmedia-fraud-idUSTRE8031VL20120104?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews&amp;utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter&amp;dlvrit=56943" target="_blank">SEC accused Anthony Fields’ of marketing fraudulent securities on LinkedIn</a>. This is perhaps the most serious example yet of the conflict between social media and SEC / FINRA regulatory guidelines designed to protect and serve investors of all types. The accusation indicates that Anthony Fields used LinkedIn and other social media networking websites to lure investors by offering more than $500 billion in fake securities. The SEC said Fields provided false and misleading information about clients, assets under management, and even the history of his firm’s business. Fields held himself out as a broker-dealer even though he never properly registered with the SEC, the agency said.</p>
<p>LinkedIn members use unregulated, member-created groups to network with other LinkedIn members with similar interests. Most of these groups are open to all, and none require a background check or other accreditation, critical credentials for safely functioning private financial markets.</p>
<p>These activities happen outside the reach of any active compliance apparatus verifying the quality, identity or validity of the marketed investment opportunities or the individual advertising them. Since these are open and unvetted forums, their use in the context of selling equity or debt securities of any kind falls into unsanctioned ground according to the <a href="http://www.tollefsenlaw.com/answers/The-Law/Securities/General-Solicitation.asp" target="_blank">SEC’s general solicitation regulations</a>.</p>
<p>If you are a deal professional and you wish to use LinkedIn in compliance of federal regulations, you’ll want to hold off on using LinkedIn Groups to solicit interest from investors of any kind.</p>
<p>LinkedIn can still be used to great success in developing relationships with relevant professionals. To do this most efficiently and productively, use the following six questions to help you measure a member’s credibility and level of engagement with LinkedIn:</p>
<p><strong>1. Does the member have a robust network?</strong> Make sure you reach out to those LinkedIn members who have relevant connections and a credible work history in the deal business, and who also maintain a fairly complete profile (if it looks like an empty shell, it probably means they don’t use LinkedIn and won’t respond to you).</p>
<p><strong>2. Are you connected to the deal professional by a second or third degree?</strong> If so, who are your mutual connections and how well do you know them? Do you trust them? Many LinkedIn members are open networkers who accept any invitation to connect. These are people with too much time on their hands.</p>
<p><strong>3. Are his/her connections accessible?</strong> If so, browse their connections and see if they make sense. Many personal networks are made up of connections in a similar industry or role. If the connections seem random, they aren’t likely a committed deal professional and more likely a gold-chaser.</p>
<p><strong>4. Do you share a group? An open group?</strong> Open groups are those that anyone can join and usually turn into a cesspool of useless and incoherent dialog.</p>
<p><strong>5. Does the deal professional’s company or employer of record have a company profile on LinkedIn which links to their company website?</strong> This is always a good indicator that they’re committed and serious about using modern internet tools to become more successful deal professionals.</p>
<p><strong>6. Does the advisor list his/her deal history on their profile or website?</strong> Can you confirm they were in fact participants in any deal they claim to be a part of?</p>
<p>Because online social networks and social media have become more pervasive and frequently used methods of business communication, we wrote another article that reviews steps and notices <a href="https://www.axialmarket.com/blog/2011/07/finrasec-social-media-compliance/" target="_blank">FINRA has created</a> to provide guidance for deal professionals working in the private markets.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Perryman Report</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/the-perryman-report/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/the-perryman-report/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Dec 2011 17:17:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Perryman Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kasperassociates.com/?p=633</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ray Perryman does a great job summarizing Texas&#8217; economic climate.  In this month&#8217;s newsletter he provides an economic forecast for Texas&#8217; largest cities. http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=htc5xpeab&#38;v=001SbPU0nO9dPDvhIounHha8DZmSHnezZeZ7Rug7gT0nLumWV5OpuaAOhA_czeeACBWOVGM5jjKb5IVcmru1h0TwabqM0NbSnSY9ECNwWCeBtT4xGR-vgfxQYNnYYogO-xLQEYZLu7l7_QYWYz_s2BtNtsqFzGVHd0V2RIVTEMa6oCf0IidFvPwum-aIuM0bhIUt_91cWR_sNucNUq3BJhEPDac87ziHTSubjLcFhQ5ohqeSDeGF29Z3iv08Buivp-BuqGp3lniZnuzNVwbWMg9N6NC6udN6M7ea3eQ0TPu2agOUoC-CD6OsQ%3D%3D]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ray Perryman does a great job summarizing Texas&#8217; economic climate.  In this month&#8217;s newsletter he provides an economic forecast for Texas&#8217; largest cities.</p>
<p><a href="http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=htc5xpeab&amp;v=001SbPU0nO9dPDvhIounHha8DZmSHnezZeZ7Rug7gT0nLumWV5OpuaAOhA_czeeACBWOVGM5jjKb5IVcmru1h0TwabqM0NbSnSY9ECNwWCeBtT4xGR-vgfxQYNnYYogO-xLQEYZLu7l7_QYWYz_s2BtNtsqFzGVHd0V2RIVTEMa6oCf0IidFvPwum-aIuM0bhIUt_91cWR_sNucNUq3BJhEPDac87ziHTSubjLcFhQ5ohqeSDeGF29Z3iv08Buivp-BuqGp3lniZnuzNVwbWMg9N6NC6udN6M7ea3eQ0TPu2agOUoC-CD6OsQ%3D%3D" target="_blank">http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=htc5xpeab&amp;v=001SbPU0nO9dPDvhIounHha8DZmSHnezZeZ7Rug7gT0nLumWV5OpuaAOhA_czeeACBWOVGM5jjKb5IVcmru1h0TwabqM0NbSnSY9ECNwWCeBtT4xGR-vgfxQYNnYYogO-xLQEYZLu7l7_QYWYz_s2BtNtsqFzGVHd0V2RIVTEMa6oCf0IidFvPwum-aIuM0bhIUt_91cWR_sNucNUq3BJhEPDac87ziHTSubjLcFhQ5ohqeSDeGF29Z3iv08Buivp-BuqGp3lniZnuzNVwbWMg9N6NC6udN6M7ea3eQ0TPu2agOUoC-CD6OsQ%3D%3D</a></p>
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		<title>Success Maxims (Part 12)</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/success-maxims-part-12/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/success-maxims-part-12/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Dec 2011 19:09:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leadership]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Motivation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Success]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Success Maxims]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kasperassociates.com/?p=630</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kasper &#38; Associates maintains faith in the American spirit and we believe in the power of positive thinking.  To that end, we’ve established a monthly posting to our blog – Success Maxims — a collection of our favorite motivational quotes, essays and leadership advice.  (For a complete collection, e-mail your mailing address to contact@kasperassociates.com.) SUCCESS MAXIMS ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kasper &amp; Associates maintains faith in the American spirit and we believe in the power of positive thinking.  To that end, we’ve established a monthly posting to our blog – <strong>Success Maxims</strong> — a collection of our favorite motivational quotes, essays and leadership advice.  (<em>For a complete collection, e-mail your mailing address to contact@kasperassociates.com.)</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>SUCCESS MAXIMS</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">–Part 12–</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Life Principles</strong></p>
<p>“Those who are successful in any field are the goal setters.  They have a desire to achieve that is coupled with discipline.” (Larry Burkett)</p>
<p>“Nothing will ever get done if we first have to remove all the obstacles.” (Paul J. Meyer)</p>
<p>“It isn’t work, it’s worry that makes people tired and frustrated.” (J.E. Gulick)</p>
<p>“The greatest composer does not sit down to work because he is inspired, but becomes inspired because he is working.” (Earnest Newman)</p>
<p>“We are what we repeatedly do; excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.” (Aristotle)</p>
<p>“Perseverance is based on two components: Effort and Desire.” (Cal Ripken, Jr.)</p>
<p>“If we work our fingers to the bone, pinch and save every penny for a rainy day, who knows, before no time at all we may be the richest person in the cemetery.” (Carl C. Wood)</p>
<p>“Fame is a vapor; popularity an accident; riches take wings; only one thing endures &#8212; CHARACTER.” (Horace Greeley)</p>
<p>“You make a living by what you get, but you make a life by what you give.” (Winston Churchill)</p>
<p>“Instruct a wise man and he will be wiser still; teach a righteous man and he will add to his learning.” (Proverbs 9:9)</p>
<p><strong><br />
</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Kiplinger 2012 Economic Outlook</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/kiplinger-2012-economic-outlook/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/kiplinger-2012-economic-outlook/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Dec 2011 16:22:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kasperassociates.com/?p=627</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/economic_outlook/index.html?si=1 The U.S. economy will grow about 2% in 2012, roughly the same as in 2011, enough to avoid another recession but not enough to make much of a dent in unemployment. Faster growth in the second half of 2011 will rescue the U.S. from a downturn, and shows that pent-up consumer demand and business ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>From <a href="http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/economic_outlook/index.html?si=1" target="_blank">http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/economic_outlook/index.html?si=1</a></div>
<div></div>
<div>
<p><strong>The U.S. economy will grow about 2% in 2012,</strong> roughly the same as in 2011, enough to avoid another recession but not enough to make much of a dent in unemployment.</p>
<p>Faster growth in the second half of 2011 will rescue the U.S. from a downturn, and shows that pent-up consumer demand and business confidence provided enough momentum to overcome a summer of stock market gyrations, a European financial crisis and the debt limit drama in Washington.</p>
<p>After growing at an annual rate of only 0.9% for the first half of the year, gross domestic product grew at a 1.8% rate in July, August and September. Business investment surged at a 15.6% annual rate, accounting for half of the increase in GDP. Consumer spending rose at a 2.3% annual rate — not great, but well above what would point to recession.</p>
<p><strong>Unfortunately, growth isn’t accelerating as it normally does in a recovery.</strong> The economy will grow a bit faster in the last quarter of 2011 but slow down agian in 2012, indicating that a sustained recovery still hasn’t started, more than two years after the end of the Great Recession.</p>
<p><strong>There is little prospect of a major fiscal or monetary stimulus, or any other development that might boost growth.</strong> The economy should stay out of the ditch, but it will remain vulnerable to possible shocks — war, terrorism, an oil price shock or a natural disaster. One or more of these could tip it into recession.</p>
<p>Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, is positive but shows no signs of driving a sustainable recovery. The 1.7% annual growth rate in the third quarter was faster than in the first half of the year, despite a drop in consumer confidence in mid-October to levels not seen since the depths of the Great Recession. Falling income and stubbornly high unemployment are weighing on the minds of consumers, who are, however, borrowing more to spend, with car sales a bright spot.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Dept. of Commerce: GDP Data</a></div>
<div><a name="employment"></a>EMPLOYMENT</div>
<div>
<div>Last updated: December 2, 2011</div>
<p><strong>The U.S. economy continues to add jobs, but not at a pace that signals a solid recovery.</strong></p>
<p>We expect this year&#8217;s pace of job creation &#8212; 130,000 a month through November — to accelerate to only 150,000 a month next year, adding up to 1.8 million new jobs. That should move the unemployment rate, which has averaged 9% this year, down to about 8.5% at the end of next year.</p>
<p><strong>Job growth in November of 120,000 was enough to cast out thoughts of another recession. </strong>But almost half the increase came in retailing, with some strength in hiring at bars and restaurants, temp agencies and health care. Manufacturing added only 2,000 jobs, while construction shed 12,000.</p>
<p><strong>November&#8217;s drop in the jobless rate, to 8.6% from 9%, is a gift that looks nice under the tree but is a little disappointing when the wrapping comes off. </strong>Half the drop is due to a shrinking labor force. Ordinarily, a big share of those who choose not to look for work are those who want jobs but are discouraged. One bright spot is that the number of these discouraged workers didn&#8217;t increase in November. The jobless rate, which includes discouraged workers and part-timers who want full-time work, fell to 15.6% from 16.2% in October.</p>
<p><strong>A concern is an increase in those unemployed for 27 weeks or more — </strong>43% of all the jobless, up from 42.4% the previous month. Expect the unemployment rate to move up a bit in early 2012, then decline again but end the year above 8%.</p>
<p><strong>A key number to watch is private employment because it represents the lion&#8217;s share of jobs and points to the overall direction of the economy. </strong>State and local governments, which typically add jobs during recovery from recession, instead are paring back.</p>
<p>Health care jobs will continue to increase next year, though the pace is slowing. There&#8217;s still uncertainty about the scope and pace of President Obama&#8217;s health care reform measures.</p>
<p><strong>There will be only a modest rise for construction. </strong>After shedding 2 million jobs during the recession, there&#8217;s little room to fall further. But gains will be moderate, especially on the residential side, where the inventory of unsold homes remains high. Manufacturing will post a very small gain, too. Firms are putting their money into equipment, and productivity gains enable most to produce more with fewer workers.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Dept. of Labor: Employment Data</a></strong></div>
<div><a name="ir"></a>INTEREST RATES</div>
<div>
<div>Last updated: December 13, 2011</div>
<p><strong>Medium- and long-term interest rates, near record lows, will rise modestly in 2012,</strong> despite continued efforts by the Federal Reserve to hold down long-term rates by purchasing more longer-term bonds.</p>
<p><strong>The 10-year Treasury note,</strong> the benchmark for medium-term rates, will rise from near 2% to between 2.5% and 3% by the end of 2012. <strong>Home mortgages, </strong>averaging about 4% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, will inch up toward 5% by 2013.</p>
<p>In September, concerned about slow economic growth, the Fed announced it would sell up to $400 billion in medium-term bonds and buy an equal amount of longer-term debt, putting downward pressure on long-term rates. This will continue into 2012, but it won’t prevent rates from edging upward.</p>
<p>Until recently, the Fed relied on rates for overnight loans to influence long-term rates, but with that target near zero since 2008, it has used other means, such as bond purchases.</p>
<p><strong>There were no changes to interest rate policy</strong> at the December 13 meeting of the Fed’s policy-making arm, but Fed officials signaled that they are working toward a major shift as soon as their next meeting January 24-25.</p>
<p>That’s when Fed watchers expect the Federal Open Market Committee to announce not only a numerical target for interest rates but also some detail on the levels at which inflation and unemployment would warrant a change in policy. Such a change would be starkly different from just a decade ago, when the Fed did not even spell out what its goals were for interest rates, leaving financial markets to rely on leaks and hints to guess the central bank’s intent.</p>
<p>At the January meeting, the Fed will release new quarterly economic projections, and Chairman Ben Bernanke will also hold a post-meeting press conference. So it’s a logical time to announce a big policy change, which Bernanke has signaled through off-the-record chats he holds regularly with selected news outlets.</p>
<p>The policy shift is intended to avoid misinterpretation of the Fed’s intentions and won’t directly raise or lower interest rates. However, it could set up a fight with conservative Republicans, who have criticized Fed efforts to boost growth as planting the seeds of inflation. GOP presidential front-runner Newt Gingrich has joined the fray, calling for legislation to drop the Fed’s mandate to keep unemployment in check by trying to boost growth.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Federal Open Market Committee</a></strong></div>
<div><a name="businessspending"></a>BUSINESS SPENDING</div>
<div>
<div>Last updated: December 23, 2011</div>
<p><strong>Solid growth in business investment through most of 2011 is slowing and won’t accelerate in 2012,</strong> as businesses show some caution in committing to putting money down on big-ticket items.</p>
<p>This spending by business — which comprises investment in buildings, equipment and software — will grow by 6% in 2012, after expanding by 8% in 2011. That’s not bad in an average year, but it’s a disappointing pace after the steep fall of the Great Recession, which slashed such investment by 19%. Even after a 17% gain in 2010, business investment is still running behind the level reached in 2007.</p>
<p><strong>Business spending of 6% next year won’t spur much hiring</strong> – growth of 10% a year or more will be needed. We expect the economy will add about 150,000 jobs a month in 2012, short of the 200,000 or so needed to sustainably lower the unemployment rate.</p>
<p><strong>Some factors point to an improving business environment in 2012. </strong>The recent infusion of capital into the European banking system eases concerns about a global financial crisis. And Congress seems to be moving toward a full-year extension of the payroll tax cut, which would remove a cloud over consumer spending.</p>
<p>Orders for durable goods — those lasting three years or more — surged 3.8% in November, but that was due largely to a huge jump for airplane orders at Boeing. Excluding transportation goods, durable goods orders increased 0.2% in November.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Census Bureau: Durable Goods Report</a></strong><br />
<strong><a href="http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/mtis_current.html" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Census Bureau: Business Inventories</a></strong><br />
<strong><a href="http://www.census.gov/const/www/c30index.html" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Census Bureau: Construction Activity</a></strong></p>
<div><a name="inflation"></a>INFLATION</div>
<div>
<div>Last updated: December 16, 2011</div>
<p><strong>The slow-growing economy and steady to lower energy prices will lower consumer inflation to 2% in 2012,</strong> on the heels of a likely 3.3% rise in prices in 2011.</p>
<p><strong>Although the overall trend for consumer inflation is down, pressures lurk that could rekindle it</strong> when the economy picks up in 2013, especially if Washington fails to take action to control the national debt. We expect little action on the debt during the coming election year.</p>
<p><strong>Prices for wholesale goods, meanwhile, will rise 3% in 2012, after jumping roughly 6% in 2011.</strong> As measured by the Producer Price Index, wholesale prices tend to be more volatile than consumer prices, representing a narrower range of products, and often move out of sync with them.</p>
<p><strong>Consumer prices are slowing already.</strong> The Consumer Price Index is up 3.4% over 12 months through November. After hitting an annual rate of 3.9% in September, consumer prices fell slightly in October and were flat in November. Both months reflected a drop in gasoline prices.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/economic_outlook/cpi/cpichart.pdf" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Consumer Price Index Table</a></strong><br />
<a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Dept. of Labor: Inflation Data</a></div>
<div><a name="energy"></a>ENERGY</div>
<div>
<div>Last updated: December 23, 2011</div>
<p><strong>Look for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil—the benchmark for U.S. oil pricing—to trade in the $90- to $95-per-barrel range into the spring,</strong> though occasional sharp ups and downs will continue to be part of the landscape.</p>
<p>Recent volatility, which saw oil prices briefly top $100, doesn’t indicate any looming imbalance in supply and demand. Rather, it’s the product of traders jumping into commodities because they’re worried that European debt woes will worsen.</p>
<p>Of course, all bets are off if European countries decide to cut off Iranian oil in retaliation for the recent storming of the British Embassy in Tehran, but that is unlikely. Oil prices spiked in Europe when the flow from Libya was disrupted by revolution, and Europeans are unlikely to hurt their fragile economies by cutting off supplies from Iran.</p>
<p><strong>Meanwhile, there’s more good news for motorists.</strong> The national average price of gasoline, now $3.22 per gallon, which has dropped 10¢ in the past month, will continue to spiral downward, to as low as $3.10 in the next few months—a welcome relief from $4-a-gallon prices this past summer.</p>
<p><strong>For truckers and other consumers of diesel, the news isn’t so good.</strong> At $3.83 per gallon, it’s holding on to a relatively high price, largely because exports of diesel are on the upswing.</p>
<p><strong>The cost of heating oil, now $3.82 per gallon—up 9¢ in the past two weeks—is sure to keep rising</strong> as colder weather takes hold, climbing to between $3.90 and $4.10 per gallon. A harsh winter, as some forecasters predict for areas such as the Upper Midwest, would keep further upward pressure on both natural gas and heating oil prices into 2012.</p>
<p><strong>But natural gas continues to be a bargain.</strong> At Henry Hub, the pricing point for natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, prices fell to $3.15 during this week’s market moves. Natural gas should trade in the $3.30 to $3.50 range until demand picks up with cold weather, when it could range from $3.60 to $4.00.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eia.gov/" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Dept. of Energy: Price Statistics</a></div>
<div><a name="housing"></a>HOUSING</div>
<div>
<div>Last updated: December 27, 2011</div>
<p><strong>Housing prices aren&#8217;t quite done falling, with a 2% drop by the middle of 2012 followed by a 2% increase in the second half of the year.</strong></p>
<p>That&#8217;s consistent with the latest numbers from the Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which finds the pace of decline slowing from early 2011. After adjusting for seasonal variations in home prices, the index reports that prices fell 0.6% from September to October in 20 major metropolitan areas.</p>
<p>That is down 3% from October 2010, but an improvement from the dramatic rate of decline after the housing bubble burst in 2006. An end to the decline would give a major boost to the economy. The 33% drop since 2006 has cut into household wealth and discouraged consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.</p>
<p><strong>Other components of housing are starting to show improvement.</strong></p>
<p>Sales of existing homes will rise 5% in 2012, to about 4.4 million, after a gain of 1% to 2% in 2011. The National Association of Realtors says that sales of single-family homes and condos rose 4% in November over October and 12% over the prior 12 months.</p>
<p><strong>New-home sales will be flat next year,</strong> around 300,000. Construction of new homes, including rentals, is on the upswing, however, and will rise 15% in 2012, to about 680,000. This, from 590,000 starts in 2011, the fewest since recordkeeping began in 1959. Housing starts were up 9.3% in November, the best month since April 2010. The gain is largely due to builders putting up apartment buildings, most destined for rental.</p>
<p><strong>Rock-bottom mortgage rates aren&#8217;t having much impact.</strong> The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is just below 4%, about as low as ever, and won’t go up much next year as the economy stays in low gear. But more lenders are requiring a down payment of 20% and imposing other, more rigorous terms, discouraging some first-time buyers.</p>
<p>The NAR, which gathers data on sales and prices for existing homes, recently revised numbers back to 2007 and found that the crash in housing sales was 15% worse than previously reported. The revision doesn&#8217;t change prices. It gives some hope for firmer prices in the near future, however, because it lowered the inventory of unsold homes. At the current pace of sales, there is seven months of supply, the lowest since February 2007.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Dept. of Commerce: New-Home Sales</a><br />
<a href="http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/ehspage" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">National Assn. of Realtors: Existing- Home Sales</a><br />
<a href="http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Dept. of Commerce: Housing Starts</a></div>
<div><a name="retail"></a>RETAIL</div>
<div>
<div>Last updated: December 14, 2011</div>
<p><strong>Retail sales growth will slow to about 6% next year</strong> from a slightly headier 8% pace this year. Even if the payroll tax cut is extended, which we expect, consumers will keep a tighter grip on their wallets in 2012. With wages stagnant, disposable income is unlikely to grow enough to keep up with this year&#8217;s sales growth, which appears to be winding up with a flourish this holiday season.</p>
<p>Sales growth will get off to an especially slow start early in the year: Most shoppers will take a break to pay off credit cards, which were used more frequently this holiday season than in recent ones.</p>
<p><strong>So far this month, the number of shoppers is outpacing the number of a year ago,</strong> cheering most merchants, and the coming Saturday before Christmas is usually the second-busiest shopping day of the year. (Yes, we know that Dec. 24 this year falls on Saturday, but Dec. 17 will be far busier.) So-called Super Saturday saw nationwide sales hit nearly $8 billion a year ago. Rising consumer sentiment, up in December, is a plus.</p>
<p><strong>The strong holiday season is helping to underpin steady fourth-quarter economic growth.</strong> Last month, retail sales, excluding autos and restaurants, were up 6.8% from the same month a year ago, though up just 0.3% from October. Consumers spent most heavily on electronics, mostly for gifts, and clothing as the weather turned colder. Stores were helped by a record $525 billion in sales racked up during the four-day Black Friday weekend &#8212; an increase of 16.4% from the same period a year ago. But dollars spent at grocery stores last month were down 0.3% from October, because food prices overall are lower now and many shoppers are opting for store brands and other cheaper options.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts.html" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Dept. of Commerce: Retail Data</a></strong></div>
<div><a name="trade"></a>TRADE</div>
<div>
<div>Last updated: December 9, 2011</div>
<p><strong>Expect U.S. exports to continue to grow in 2012, although at a slightly slower pace than this year.</strong> Exports are on pace to end 2011 up 15% compared to 2010. Next year, we expect them to grow about 12%, slightly more slowly due to a recession in Europe in the first six months of the year. The European Union is the United States’ largest trading partner when counted as a group.</p>
<p>In October, exports fell to $179.2 billion, down 0.8% from September, when monthly exports hit a new record. Exports of automobiles and consumer goods declined in October, as did industrial supplies, due to by a decline in commodity prices in August and September.</p>
<p><strong>Imports are also expected to rise next year,</strong> but growth will be constrained by slower consumer spending growth in the second half of the year. Expect imports to increase 12% in 2012, compared to about 14% growth this year. Imports fell to $222.6 billion in October, down about 1% from September. The drop was mostly due to a decline in oil prices in August and September, with orders showing up in the October report. Other import categories remain strong, an indication that consumers are shrugging off persistently high unemployment in the United States and the prospect of a global slowdown.</p>
<p><strong>The trade deficit is expected to rise in 2012 over this year,</strong> despite dropping in October for the fourth consecutive month. As a recession takes hold in Europe, exports will grow more slowly than imports, contributing to a larger trade deficit in the first half of 2012. The deficit with the European Union increased to $8 billion in October, from $6.4 billion in September, a sign of slowing demand for U.S. goods there.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/" target="_&quot;blank&quot;">Dept. of Commerce: Trade Data</a></strong></div>
</div>
<p>Read more: <a href="http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/economic_outlook/#ixzz1hqYgtsdO" target="_blank">http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/economic_outlook/#ixzz1hqYgtsdO</a><br />
<a href="http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Kiplingers-Personal-Finance-magazine/65904782836" target="_blank">Become a Fan of Kiplinger&#8217;s on Facebook</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>A Cowboy&#8217;s Christmas Prayer</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/a-cowboys-christmas-prayer/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/a-cowboys-christmas-prayer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Dec 2011 16:26:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christmas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cowboy Poetry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prayer]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kasperassociates.com/?p=618</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Merry Christmas from Kasper &#38; Associates! &#160; A Cowboy&#8217;s Christmas Prayer By S. Omar Barker I ain&#8217;t much good at prayin&#8217;, and You may not know me, Lord &#8211; For I ain&#8217;t much seen in churches, where they preach Thy Holy Word. But you may have observed me out here on the lonely plains, A-lookin&#8217; ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Merry Christmas from Kasper &amp; Associates!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #000000;">A Cowboy&#8217;s Christmas Prayer</span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em style="text-align: center;">By S. Omar Barker</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">I ain&#8217;t much good at prayin&#8217;,<br />
and You may not know me, Lord &#8211;<br />
For I ain&#8217;t much seen in churches,<br />
where they preach Thy Holy Word.<br />
But you may have observed me<br />
out here on the lonely plains,<br />
A-lookin&#8217; after cattle,<br />
feelin&#8217; thankful when it rains.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">Admirin&#8217; Thy great handiwork.<br />
the miracle of the grass,<br />
Aware of Thy kind Spirit,<br />
in the way it comes to pass<br />
That hired men on horseback<br />
and the livestock that we tend<br />
Can look up at the stars at night,<br />
and know we&#8217;ve got a Friend.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">So here&#8217;s ol&#8217; Christmas comin&#8217; on,<br />
remindin&#8217; us again<br />
Of Him whose coming brought good will<br />
into the hearts of men.<br />
A cowboy ain&#8217;t a preacher, Lord,<br />
but if You&#8217;ll hear my prayer,<br />
I&#8217;ll ask as good as we have got<br />
for all men everywhere.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">Don&#8217;t let no hearts be bitter, Lord.<br />
Don&#8217;t let no child be cold.<br />
Make easy the beds for them that&#8217;s sick<br />
and them that&#8217;s weak and old.<br />
Let kindness bless the trail we ride,<br />
no matter what we&#8217;re after,<br />
And sorter keep us on Your side,<br />
in tears as well as laughter.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">I&#8217;ve seen ol&#8217; cows a-starvin&#8217; -<br />
and it ain&#8217;t no happy sight;<br />
Please don&#8217;t leave no one hungry, Lord,<br />
on Thy Good Christmas Night &#8211;<br />
No man, no child, no woman,<br />
and no critter on four feet<br />
I&#8217;ll do my doggone best<br />
to help you find &#8216;em chuck to eat.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">I&#8217;m just a sinful cowpoke, Lord &#8211;<br />
ain&#8217;t got no business prayin&#8217;<br />
But still I hope you&#8217;ll ketch a word<br />
or two, of what I&#8217;m sayin&#8217;:<br />
We speak of Merry Christmas, Lord&#8211;<br />
I reckon You&#8217;ll agree &#8211;</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">There ain&#8217;t no Merry Christmas<br />
for nobody that ain&#8217;t free!<br />
So one thing more I ask You,<br />
Lord: just help us what You can<br />
To save some seeds of freedom<br />
for the future Sons of Man!</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.cowboypoetry.com/xma2002five.htm" target="_blank">http://www.cowboypoetry.com/xma2002five.htm</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>8 Tools Your Business Must Use to Leverage Social Media</title>
		<link>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/8-tools-your-business-must-use-to-leverage-social-media/</link>
		<comments>http://www.kasperassociates.com/general/8-tools-your-business-must-use-to-leverage-social-media/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Dec 2011 18:52:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>layne</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business Owner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marketing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Media]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.kasperassociates.com/?p=615</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From Successful Business News: 8 Tools Your Business Must Use to Leverage Social Media By now, you already know that social media is one of the cheapest and most effective ways to market and advertise your business. There are a number of tools on the market that are designed to help you take advantage of ...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>From Successful Business News:</em></p>
<h1>8 Tools Your Business Must Use to Leverage Social Media</h1>
<p>By now, you already know that social media is one of the cheapest and most effective ways to market and advertise your business. There are a number of tools on the market that are designed to help you take advantage of social media in a way that makes you more effective and saves time.</p>
<p>The goal of these tools is to help you integrate social media into your daily business practices, and while you may be familiar with some tools like <a href="http://successfulbusinessnews.com/#" target="_blank">Google Docs</a> and Radian 6, these are eight tools your business may not be aware of.</p>
<p><a href="http://hootsuite.com/" title="HootSuite - Social Media Dashboard" rel="homepage" target="_blank">Hootsuite</a> is a little like a digital dashboard for all of your social media needs. Designed to work with major platforms including Twitter, Facebook, <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/" title="LinkedIn" rel="homepage" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a> and <a href="http://www.foursquare.com/" title="Foursquare" rel="homepage" target="_blank">FourSquare</a>, the tool allows you to quickly manage updates to as many platforms as you need. Already a favorite among big business and even political campaigns, Hootsuite makes it easy to manage a number of microblogging sites and social media tools from a single, easy to use dashboard.</p>
<p>Dropbox is a super smart tool for businesses that lets you store files on the Dropbox site and then access them from anywhere. It’s a little like a fileserver that doesn’t require an actual server. The tool also offers a version for <a href="http://www.apple.com/iphone" title="iPhone" rel="homepage" target="_blank">iPhone</a>, making it easy for you and your employees to share information quickly. You can then use this information to update your social media sites in real time from anywhere you take your cell phone.</p>
<p>Screenr is a tool that allows you to quickly and easily create screencasts, or videos that capture your computer screen and an audio recording to show users how to work a new feature on your site. This tool makes it fast and easy to create videos that can explain to users in a few minutes what would otherwise take hours to explain, and you can add your screencasts to your social media pages, creating engaging content that keeps visitors interested.</p>
<p>Monitter is an online reputation management tool that instantly shows you what people are saying about your business online. The tool allows you to search for any mention of your business online with just a quick entry. You can also look for your own name, product names, or anything else you want to stay up to date on. This tool can help you reach out to potential users and manage any mentions that you get online.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mailchimp.com/" title="MailChimp" rel="homepage" target="_blank">Mail Chimp</a> is a great way to test the waters for email marketing. The tool provides a way for you to manage email lists, analyze and track emails, and create custom HTML email templates. The tool is free for up to 500 users and will send out as many as 3000 emails per month. If you want to try email marketing, this is an ideal way to try without spending a fortune.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.google.com/ig" title="iGoogle" rel="homepage" target="_blank">iGoogle</a> is ideal for anyone who regularly uses tools such as gmail or the Google search engine. Create an iGoogle page, set it as your home page, and you can subscribe to RSS feeds which let you know whenever someone blogs or tweets about you, products or services you offer, or your industry in general.</p>
<p>Technorati is a tool that lets you search across different blogs to find out what people are writing about. Leverage the tool to find out what people are saying about your product or service, problems that people see with your competitor, or issues within your target market. It’s a way of using social media to collect information about what your customers need.</p>
<p>Hubspot is a tool that lets businesses take advantage of a suite of social media tools including auto-publishing, social media monitoring, and social media analysis. The tool offers business people a way to handle a number of the trickier parts of handling their social media presence from a single easy to use application.</p>
<p><a href="http://successfulbusinessnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;id=855&amp;view=article" target="_blank">http://successfulbusinessnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;id=855&amp;view=article</a></p>
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